Measure Marketing’s ROI Right: Incremental Net Profit ROI!
There’s a scary Giant hiding in your closet. It imposes hidden costs that, when accounted for, transform your claim that advertising is adding business profits. Short-term, long-term. The scary Giant changes your OMG! to omg? There’s an incredible return from investing time and love in identifying your Giant costs. Ex: Identifying non-working media costs, by calculating them for the core and sub-components. There is only one other thing more important in Advertising (incrementality). [Note:Newsletter Premium Subscribers: If you can’t locate TMAI #437: Compute Non-Working Media Costs and TMAI #411: Proving Marketing’s Incrementality, just hit reply.] This got me thinking about how frequently we throw around the key performance indicator (KPI), Return on Investment (ROI) – without being careful how they are computed or transparent about what they include or exclude. We simply claim: Our Performance Agency is delivering an ROI of 4! The claim’s implication: For every $1 our Agency spends on Ads, they are delivering $4 back. HURRAY!! So today… Let’s interrogate that 4. What is it? Can it be trusted to reward your Agency? A question to answer by the end: Does your Agency impact survive calculating ROI 4? This blog post was originally published as Premium edition #438 of my newsletter. Weekly, I share actionable insights and hidden patterns to stay at the bleeding edge of Marketing, Analytics, and AI. Sign up for TMAI Premium. 100% revenues are donated to charity. With the Real ROI, Please Stand Up? So, what’s ROI? The most common computation: ROI = [(Revenue – Media Costs)/(Media Costs)] Media Costs are typically the Dollars/Renminbi you paid to run ads – on Facebook, Magazines, CTV, Radio, Bing. Sometimes referred to as Advertising Costs. Revenue is the traceable sum of $$$ earned from running the aforementioned ads. ROI is often expressed at a campaign level – though you can obviously decompose it by an individual ad, a channel, a group of tactics, and on and on. [Premum Subscribers: This is when the Multi-touch Attribution methodology becomes super important – plese refer to TMAI #434.] I was reviewing a Client’s QBR for a recent Campaign and sure enough they’d computed ROI: [Privacy Note: Numbers are real, the visualization is mine. Any mistakes you catch are mine.] ROI = 4!! [Note: I’m not going to cover the commonly bandied about ROAS – Return on Ad Spend. While a close cousin of ROI, I consider ROAS to be emotionally sketchy.] The Agency did not know the Campaign’s overall budget, not unusual, as Agencies rarely do (though you should share with them). I’ve added that number to the table above. An ROI of 4 looks incredible, no? I offer that the 4 is unreal. It meets the classic definition of fake news. To sell the shoes / car parts / laptops / eyeglasses / Bluetooth adapters, you had to design them, manufacture them, ship them, store them, and wait for the order to come. Of all those costs, at the very minimum, you cannot ignore the cost to manufacture them. You sell a pair of eyeglasses for $50, you need to account for the $35 Cost to manufacture them. $35 is known as Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). Hence, this is a more real news formula of ROI: ROI 2 = [(Revenue – COGS – Media Costs)/(Media Costs)]OR ROI 2 = [(Gross Profit – Media Costs)/(Media Costs)] I call ROI 2: “Gross Profit ROI.” For the client above, this is a more real ROI the Agency delivered: For this company, the COGS was 70% of the sale price (expressed as Gross Margin above). After counting that, the amount the company made was $0.9 million, and not $3.2 million. The new, more real, ROI driven by advertising is 0.5. While heartbreaking, please learn to embrace the 0.5 – or you will never know how to be better. Wait, wait, there’s more. Remember, the total budget spent by the Marketing team was $1 million. It is not the $0.6 million being used in both the formulas above. The delta, $0.4 million, were non-working media costs. [Premium Subscribers: See TMAI Premium #437 for how.] IMPORTANT: Your Agency spent $0.6 mil, their calculation is right for what they know. You spent $1 mil, it is your job to account for this money. You must account for the Total Campaign Spend, by using this formula to compute ROI: ROI 3 = [(Revenue – Non-working Costs – COGS – Campaign Budget)/(Campaign Budget)]OR ROI 3 = [(Net Profit – Media Costs)/(Campaign Budget)] This helps us land even closer to the real ROI that your team (not Agency) delivered to the company: The Net Profit ROI 3? Minus 0.1. Your advertising campaign lost money. A shocking realization when you reported ROI as 4 to your CMO. No? We are not done getting to the business value of this campaign. There’s one more thing to get to the realest ROI from advertising. What would have happened if you did not execute this campaign?Would you have lost the entire $3.2 million in Revenue, if you had not spent the $1 million on advertising? Incrementality. Incrementality! We who are active practitioners of the art and science of incrementality know that you would have made a bunch of the $3.2 million even if you did not execute the campaign. I know, I know, it hurts our feelings as Marketers, but sadly, it is reality. Nearly all the sales that come into your company have nothing to do with Marketing! Let’s do one more computation of ROI, this time accounting for incrementality. In this case, the Agency did not practice incrementality for this Client, hence, for today, I’m going to assume it is a super high 30%. What does that number mean? 70% of the Claimed Sales by this campaign, would have occurred any way (store location, product features, seasonality, innovation, reviews on Amazon, whatever else). Here’s the final, closest to real, formula for ROI: ROI 4 = [(iRevenue – iNon-working Costs – iCOGS – Campaign Budget)/(Campaign Budget)]OR ROI 4 = [(Incremental Net Profit – Media Costs)/(Campaign Budget)] That yields the following Incremental Net Profit ROI (4) results: We really lost money. The Campaign’s incremental Net Profit ROI (iROI) is -0.7. A very different picture than the 4 the Agency presented at the start with ROI 1. Difficult Questions: What do you and your Agency compute today? ROI 3 at least? Perhaps, ROI 4?Does our journey today explain why the Marketing budget keeps getting cut by the CFO, despite Marketing’s protests that they are delivering 4x return on investment? Special Note | Brand Marketing ROI. The ROI computations above span a four to six month impact horizon. For brand marketing campaigns, the impact horizon, will stretch beyond six months. For such campaigns, we compute short-term ROI #4 using different KPIs (# People Lifted, Cost Per Individual Lifted – both vs. baselines), and different methodologies (true test-control surveys, not pre-post). And, we will hold Brand Marketing to account for delivering long-term profitability! For that, we will measure long-term ROI #4 with the same KPIs (incremental Profit), but different methodologies (longer impact horizon like advanced attribution modeling, ML-based mix models, and CausalAI). Radically improving Marketing’s ROI. Good Marketing can absolutely deliver a magnificent Return on Investment. But how? For my clients, I take a repeatedly tested in the real world four-step approach to deliver radically better ROI. I did a deep dive into each step, and actions you should take, in Premium edition #440. Here’s the summary: Step 1. The Marketing Team: Obsess about excessive non-working media costs. Step 2: The Agency: Obsess about highly incremental tactics. Step 3: The Commerce Team: Why is the Conversion Rate so low? Step 4: The Engineering Team: Product costs and process innovation The glorious profit-generating outcome my approach above looks like… You can replicate it in your company… [Higher resolution: Right Click, Open in a New Tab.] TMAI Premium subscriber? Please email me for the excel spreadsheet, and the deep dive details of the four step process above. Bottom line. Marketing tends to be the first budget to be cut in tough times. Two reasons: 1. No one at the top of the company quite believes any claim the CMO offers re impact of Marketing (see above). 2. Marketing competes with Engineering, Retail Stores, Customer Service, HR, Factories, Finance for budget – the short-term ROI from all of them is easier to see (and believe). This is our (Marketing’s) problem to understand, and fix. Here are your standards: ROI #3 is the minimum standard that’ll survive Board or CFO scrutiny. ROI #4 will ensure Marketing is among the last budgets to be cut. Carpe diem!
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2 Seconds to Brand Impact: A Modern Video Ads Playbook
Would you believe it: Almost no one watches your video ads! Take your company employee hat off: Do you watch any other company’s video ads, if you have the choice to skip or swipe? Do you watch your company’s ads, if you have the choice to skip or swipe? The answer for you, me, our employee peers is likely no. Reason: Just as for our users… The ad’s in the way. When producing advertising, here’s the reality CMOs ignore: You are not competing against other ads. You are competing against the entire internet. All of it. If a human is actively watching your 60s ad on TV all the way to the end, the most likely reason is her phone’s battery is dead. Pause for reflection. This blog post was originally published as edition #489 of my newsletter TMAI Premium. Each week, I share strategic insights and actionable guidance on how to stay at the very bleeding edge of Marketing, Analytics, and AI-transformation. Sign up for TMAI Premium to accelerate your career trajectory. 100% of TMAI revenues are donated to charity. I am not advocating against video advertising. It is essential for effective and scalable brand marketing. I am advocating for ad creatives to embrace the decade-old reality of consumer behavior, media consumption, and attention fragmentation. I am for video advertising strategies that are built to recognize that attention is the most expensive currency on earth. To make the case for just how important this is… Here’s my synthesis of the data illustrating the average seconds of attention paid in each media channel, how much of that attention is with sound on (more effective!), and how much of your ad is watched all the way to the end… Video Ads: Attention Metrics [For a higher resolution image: Right mouse click > Open image in new tab.] Sobering, no? Big Insight: Active attention to an ad is contextual. And, brief. Increasingly: Just the first two seconds. Big Implication: A 60s TV ad is now, functionally, a 15-second ad with 45 seconds of background noise for most viewers. A 15s TikTok video ad is now, functionally, a 1s display ad view. Big Disappointment: Your Brand Marketing is largely delivering zero brand lift when measured with true test-control brand lift studies. If you are producing ads (“stories”) longer than 30 seconds – like the one- to five-minute sappy holiday creatives common this time of year – you are doing that purely for your own entertainment. Protect your career by not promising any business profits. The data above also explains why your TikTok / Reels / YT Shorts ad campaigns have almost never delivered brand lift with an above zero confidence interval – a massive waste of precious creative & Marketing budgets. [Note: TMAI Premium subscribers, carefully review TMAI #447: Confidence Intervals: A Brand Analytics MUST Have. Please email me if you do not have my awesome Excel model to compute your campaign’s real impact.] Why obsess about this? Effective Brand Marketing is the only way to grow Market Share over time. Video ads are a necessary tactic in that holy quest. Let’s embrace real consumer behavior, media consumption, and attention fragmentation. Shorter video ads. And, regardless of the ad length, front-loaded video ads with high-impact first two seconds. Wait, Wait, Wait… Loooong Ads Are Better! Like me, I’m confident you’ve heard a variation of this from your VP of Creative / Global Creative Director / CMO: Long creatives tell a better story, and people remember better stories. What does the data say? Data Fact One: Studies by Facebook’s Brand Lift team, Google/YT ABCDs find that shorter ads (6-15s) often drive equal or higher lifts in Ad Recall and Consideration than longer ads. (In part because they are less likely to be skipped or are unskippable.) Data Fact Two: Quantifying that… Research (Lumen/Teads) identifies that 15s ads drive 75-85% of the recall of a 30s ad – at half the media cost (Magna/IPG). Data Fact Three: If they hold attention throughout, longer ads (30s+) can drive higher emotional intensity and long-term brand affinity. Your VP, Director, CMO is right… Longer ads have additional value to offer! To deliver that special magic, long ad creatives have to solve three problems: 1. The long ad needs to be built to solve a different, long-term purpose. 2. If you just want to drive Unaided Brand Awareness, Consideration, or Purchase Intent, you can do so more efficiently with a shorter ad, while lowering resentment risk. The long ad creative needs to be super magnificently effective in the first 1-4 seconds. The creative has to be able to avoid the Skip / Swipe in skippable ad formats, and avoid the human looking away / going to the bathroom / looking down at their phone in the case of non-skippable formats. 3. The long ad creative needs to be supported by 3x – 6x additional media budget – when compared to the 15s ad media budget – to deliver the promised higher emotional intensity. Life Changing Insight: The modern battle for brand lift isn’t won by one long story; it is won by frequency of short, high-impact moments. No matter your ad length, if your ad is not seen x number of times over y weeks, it will not deliver impact. [Note: Premium subscribers deep dive and incorporate: TMAI #431: Impact of Ad Length on Campaign Cost.] It is difficult to meet these three magic-producing criteria, but it can be done. Use the ad length that is optimal for the business purpose you are solving for. Don’t use a jumbo jet to commute to Manhattan. Don’t try to cycle from NY to Chicago. Regardless of ad length/purpose, I’m confident you noticed that you really need to make the first two, three, seconds count. [Special Advice: The Ad Sales team at one particular ad platform aggressively champions the cause of looooooooooong ads. If you run into them, set all else aside and ask one question: How do we get distribution for the looooooooooong ads? If you get an affordable, scalable answer that spike and sustains, follow their advice.] An Ideal Video Ads Media Plan. Recognizing that effective Brand Marketing via video ads is not a one-size-fits-all, I want to sketch this starting point for your video ads strategy: Spark: 6s “Bumpers” / equivalent, will take a majority of your media budget (55-65%). They build frequency, recognition, and sustain your brand lift gains. Fuel: 15s / equivalent, will take nearly all of the rest of your media budget (25-35%). Ideally, sequenced with effective 6s ads so they would have gained interest to hear the rest of the story. Blaze: An occasional 30s (ideally non-skip) taking the remaining budget (5-8%), in big spike moments to support a specific brand feeling. Beacon: A rare, beautiful 60s film, not as an ad (0%), but organically seeded on social channels, shown in internal company meetings, submitted for industry awards. There can be small, occasional, variations. From my experience across industries and countries… For retail type companies, Spark takes up 70%. For B2B, Fuel can be up to 40%. For a revolutionary new product/company, Blaze temporarily can be 20%. Repetition: You will notice I’m consistently prioritizing frequency over length. Effective Brand Marketing is frequency-powered in an age where attention is the most expensive currency. Second repetition: Regardless of length, each type of video ad will have to start front-loaded, with a BANG. The first few seconds are critical to plant a memory, to generate interest in seeing rest of the story. Let’s learn how to do that. How to Be Creative: Zero 2 Interest in Two Seconds! Across all social video, users pay only 12 seconds of active ad attention for every hour(!!). Implication: Your share of voice is infinitesimal unless you disrupt their pattern. To do that, you have one to three seconds max. I’ll share data-identified effective creative tactics, for each channel. But first, there are five creative tactics that apply regardless of channel. Big 5 Universal Creative Effectiveness Truths. 1. Brand in 3. The brand must be recognizable within 3 seconds (logo, color, sonic signature, character). 2. Frame-One Impact. The first visual frame must tell a story or pose a question. (It is insanely difficult, that is what it takes to win.) 3. Sound as Lead, Not Support. Music, voice tone, and audio pacing drive emotional response faster than visual. 4. The “Why Now?” Answer the viewer’s unconscious question: “Why should I care about this right now?” (Reminder: Your ad’s competing against all the content on the internet.) 5. Creative Pre-Tested. The only way to win before you spend is to pre-test your creative – and ensure it passed in your ad’s media channel and your intended audience. For Concepts and high media weight Executions, use HMM Pro. For high volume, low media weight Executions, TikTok/Shorts/Reels, use HMM AI. These are super high standards for your creative teams to meet. In a world where you’ll get 12 seconds of ad attention per hour… Recommendations 1 – 5 above are mandatory. If you feel your video ads are falling short of the above truths: A. That explains why you can’t prove an iota of incremental impact from Brand Marketing on long-term Revenue. B. That should be a reason you pause your current video ad spend until your creative team/agency can deliver worthy creative. The Build Effective Creative Journey Continues. Every channel has its nuances. What works on TV rarely works on YouTube. What works on Reels often does not work for Facebook. Mobile video ads needs different Big Bang Two-Second start than if they are served on CTV. In TMAI #490 I’ve shared detailed best practices I’ve validated through testing and media tactics individually for Linear TV, CTV, YouTube Skippable, Facebook/Instagram Feed, TikTok/Reels/Shorts, and Snapchat. Lessons from approx. $10 bil in brand marketing spend analyzed. If you are a new TMAI Premium member, please email me if you can’t find edition 490 with detailed Part 2. If you are not, grab an annual Premium subscription here – the insights will transform your professional effectiveness! Bottom line. Our belief in the power of story is correct. Our canvas has changed. The 60-second spot is not dead, as illustrated above, it has a purpose in a Beacon strategy on free channels and for earning awards. The 60-second ad as interruption is dead. It does not perform as a media strategy. (Neither is there much inventory to buy. The platforms know it does not work!) Short-form creative is how we earn attention, and earn permission to tell our (slightly) longer, richer story. We are not abandoning our craft. Our quest remains legendary brand lift! The path we take to get there is new. Carpe diem. Avinash. PS: In the world of Chinese livestream sales, Zheng Xiang Xiang’s approach is super impressive. She sells 100 million Yuan ($19m) of products in a week. Don’t emulate it. Xiang Xiang operates within available attention. Appreciate that to become a better Marketer.
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Marketing Analytics: Methodologies Trump Metrics!
If a conversation is occurring about Data and Analytics, chances are high that it is about Metrics. About how abhorrent Vanity Metrics are. About the marginal value of Activity Metrics. About how crucial a focus on Outcome Metrics is. About Metrics for Dashboard – NO! Only KPIs for Dashboards. About the difference between KPIs and […]
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Marketing Analytics Mistake #1: Efficiency Without Effectiveness!
“Let’s all focus on a single metric, a True North for the entire company!” This is an understandable sentiment from Extremely Senior Leaders (ESLs). There are so many data pukes (sorry, “dashboards”) running around the organization, employees face such difficulty in being able to be smarter. Or, worse, Teams/Agencies can cherry-pick and show “impact.” Hence, […]
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Scapegoating Analysts | Recognizing & Preventing A Bad Idea.
Here’s a sign that you’ve arrived as an Analyst or an Analytics team: At the first sign of failure reported by the data, most people blame you (Analyst/Data). Wear it as a badge of honor! It means your analysis has identified insights that are big enough, important enough, that the recipients get instantly worried. Ideally, […]
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Strategic Marketing Analytics: CMO Dashboards That Rock!
An extraordinary amount of time, effort, $$$ are spent on building dashboards/scorecards for CMOs… Yet, the end result, nearly always, is a useless data puke. It turns out boiling the ocean is hard. To build an effective big picture scorecard for the CMO, that is not data pukey, there are three crucial challenges that have […]
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Transform Data’s Impact: Pick The Right Success KPI!
Your analysis provides clear data that the campaign was a (glorious) failure. It could not be clearer. The KPI you chose for your brand campaign was Trust, it had a pre-set target of +5. The post-campaign analysis that compares performance across Test & Control cells shows that Trust did not move at all. (Suspiciously, there […]
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Winning With Data: Say No To Insights, Yes To Out-of-sights!
If there is one thing the universe agrees on, it is that you should just provide data… You should provide INSIGHTS!!! In the 807,150 (!) words I’ve written on this blog thus far, at least 400,000 have been dedicated to helping you find insights. In posts about advanced segmentation, in posts about how to build […]
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The Most Important Business KPIs. (Spoiler: Not Conversion Rate!)
I was reading a paper by a respected industry body that started by flagging head fake KPIs. I love that moniker, head fake. Likes. Sentiment/Comments. Shares. Yada, yada, yada. This is great. We can all use head fake metrics to calling out useless activity metrics. [I would add other head fake KPIs to the list: […]
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Increase Analytics Influence: Leverage Predictive Metrics!
Almost all metrics you currently use have one common thread: They are almost all backward-looking. If you want to deepen the influence of data in your organization – and your personal influence – 30% of your analytics efforts should be centered around the use of forward-looking metrics. Predictive metrics! But first, let’s take a small […]
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Cookies To Humans: Implications Of Identity Systems On Incentives!
A story where data is the hero, followed by two mind-challenging business-shifting ideas. At a previous employer customer service on the phone was a huge part of the operation. Qualitative surveys were giving the company a read that customers were unhappy with the service being provided. As bad customer service is a massive long-term cost […]
Cookies To Humans: Implications Of Identity Systems On Incentives! is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
It’s Not The Ink, It’s The Think: 6 Effective Data Visualization Strategies
Ten years, and the 944,357 words, are proof that I love purposeful data, collecting it, pouring smart strategies into analyzing it, and using the insights identified to transform organizations. In the quest for that last important bit, I am insanely obsessive about 1. simplification and 2. pressing the right emotional buttons. The reasons are that […]
It’s Not The Ink, It’s The Think: 6 Effective Data Visualization Strategies is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Rock Analytics More: Obsess About Goals And Goal Values!
If you don’t have goals, you are not doing digital analytics. You are doing i am wasting earth’s precious oxygenalytics. Let’s back up. Let me start with a story. We were brain storming about the next clustseeer of coolness for Analytics, the conversation quickly went to what Analysts need to look at on a daily, […]
Rock Analytics More: Obsess About Goals And Goal Values! is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Excellent Analytics Tip #27: Chase Smart Calculated Metrics!
For the last decade (#omg!), I’ve consistently complained about a fundamental flaw in Web Analytics tools: They incentivize one night stands, rather than engagements matching customer-intent. This leads to owners of digital experiences (insanely) expecting all visitors to their websites to convert right away – anything less than that is a failure. Damn the intent […]
Excellent Analytics Tip #27: Chase Smart Calculated Metrics! is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Great Storytelling With Data: Visualize Simply And Focus Obsessively
The difference between a Reporting Squirrel and Analysis Ninja? Insights. As in, the former is in the business of providing data, the latter in the business of understanding the performance implied by the data. That understanding leads to insights about why the performance occurred, which leads to so what we should do. [Sidebar] I’m experimenting […]
Great Storytelling With Data: Visualize Simply And Focus Obsessively is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Speed, Focus, Smart Insights: 5 Google Analytics Custom Reports FTW!
Standard reports stink. Custom reports rock! If you are a regular reader of this blog, you are quite familiar with this sentiment. I’ve expressed it often. :) [Sidebar] I’m experimenting with sharing short stories via an insightful newsletter. I’d love for you to sign up: The Marketing Analytics Intersect. Thanks! [/Sidebar] The primary reason is […]
Speed, Focus, Smart Insights: 5 Google Analytics Custom Reports FTW! is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Smart Dashboard Modules: Insightful Dimensions And Best Metrics
My last post, perhaps provocatively, called for a reduction of data in executive dashboards (digital, online, offline). More English (IABI, specifically) would lead to a smarter understanding of performance, and of course glory for data practitioners. Here’s the post: Strategic & Tactical Dashboards: Best Practices, Examples. In the post Adil commented that he’s observed that […]
Smart Dashboard Modules: Insightful Dimensions And Best Metrics is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Digital Dashboards: Strategic & Tactical: Best Practices, Tips, Examples
I’m excited about the power of a well created dashboard. It is a thing of beauty and a source of immense joy. Oh, and of course a critical element for any company’s path to glory. Dashboards are every where, we will look at a lot of them in this post and they are all digital. […]
Digital Dashboards: Strategic & Tactical: Best Practices, Tips, Examples is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Excellent Analytics Tip #26: Every Critical Metric Should Have A BFF!
There is unlimited amount of data thrown off our digital existences. (Or to use sexy term du jour , we have big data!) Our leaders (companies, agencies, teams) have to deal with an incredibly complex landscape, and they don’t have enough time. The very natural outcomes is this ask of us: “Can you make it […]
Excellent Analytics Tip #26: Every Critical Metric Should Have A BFF! is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik
Best Metrics For Digital Marketing: Rock Your Own And Rent Strategies
In a world of infinite choice, the ability to pick critical few metrics to focus on is, well…, critical. It is the difference between plodding along, or winning big. But choosing what to focus on is extremely hard. You have to have a deeper understanding of the business, an expansive knowledge of what is possible […]
Best Metrics For Digital Marketing: Rock Your Own And Rent Strategies is a post from: Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik