I'm a Link Builder, Jim, Not A F*&^ing Soothsayer!
I was cornered and asked this yesterday :
How much traffic can you guarantee I will get from a number 1 spot in Google natural (unpaid) listings?
and this seemed like the most accurate answer I could give…..
….more traffic than you would get if you were in number 2 position
Most keyword data tools are inaccurate.
Without actually being number 1 for a term, it’s impossible to say for sure. Google Adwords of course is very useful (the best keyword research tool?) but your paying a pretty penny for all that intel and often, the client has no data to share.
If you’re a seo with a few number 1 terms, you can look see what traffic you get and compare it with any keyword data tool for that key phrase, and then make some assumptions from any normalised data. You can also mine for opportunities in your niche comparing keyword volumes with keyword competition etc etc. – you can even look at Alexa (!) and Compete and a few other places.
I use SEMRUSH and Google keyword tools to give myself an idea of the most popular keyterms, but then again, I am a link builder, not a keyword monkey, or a soothsayer.
I only need to do the easy bit – change rankings for as many keyword terms as possible – usually by building domain authority.
I hate wasting too much time on something when it’s little better than a surmising that’s been calculated. I’d rather spend that time thinking about getting real links from real sites (where possible). 6 months ago Google told me a keyword sent 20,000 visitors a month – today it is 18000 – local, it is 9000 searches. I am no2 for that term plural and single word) after wikipedia now in google.com, and getting 200 visitors a month from both terms.
That’s a pretty big discrepancy even between the local numbers. I got 10 visitors on that term today. 10×30 is 300. Even if I triple that for the number one spot, that’s still a bit difference!
Then again, I get 11,000 visitors a month to a term/keyword combo that doesn’t even register in any keyword tool lol!
I certainly never trust the actual volumes I’m told about by these keyword tools. Often I’ll turn to Google Analytics to spot more likely/ achievable opportunities in traffic.
But as an seo, I’m supposed to know about keyword research, linkbuilding, server responses, pagerank, relevance factors, ranking benefits ET AL.
When I am speaking to potential clients, I’m usually in, just after some swanky salesman from another seo company, has hit the prospect with GUARANTEES and FIGURES I think to myself I’m not even bothering trying to compete with this because most claims like this in seo are nonsense – a best guess at the very best.
And I’m not saying keyword research isn’t important. It is a fundamental part of any campaign – perhaps the most important part. It’s just not my favourite bit of seo (getting real links to relevant pages is), and I hate making any kind of predictions in any market I don’t have years of experience in – and there’s a lot of markets out there.
I pointed out to the prospect if whether I win this contract or not is based on whether or not I can guarantee anything about traffic levels, I’ll bow out of the negotiations. Whatever I come up with is a best guess.
We did win the business….. proof you don’t always need to talk b*llocks to get on in seo or online marketing.
If you’ve any tips on keyword research, do share – I am always learning to do things better :)
[...] how rankings differ from country to country and place to place – worth considering when researching keywords. Geolocation and personalisation really mixes Google rankings up [...]
How about using google webmaster central query data? Average CTR 1st position * Impressions = Clicks?
Maybe interesting. Still doesn’t help me talking to a new client though…..
In all actually that isn’t too hard to figure out… On average, according to Chitika (http://chitika.com/research/2010/the-value-of-google-result-positioning/), the #1 spot gets approximately 34% of the search traffic for any given search term. If you can get a relatively accurate search count, you can predict with a decent amount of certainty how much traffic the page will get. Of course, to be on the safe side, I would choose to under promise and over deliver. So once you have your number, remove between 10 and 25% then when the actual numbers come in, you should look golden.
That’s sort of what I do – again, interesting share :)
Isn’t that the problem?
Like most of us, you have the tools to get the search counts. Take the average of them. That can’t be too far off. Explain to the clients that the number of searches varies every month and though you’d love to give them a hard and fast number you can’t. And that X is my best guess based upon X=Y*Z and that Y & Z are averages. Most people can see the difference between truth and BS.
Maybe you can start doing my keyword research Tim :)
I’ve got a couple of clients that rank no.1 for reasonable, not completely obscure keywords and they show the following: local searches a month: 6600 visits: 667 (10.2%) local searches a month: 9900 visits: 281 (not worth calculating%) Either there is something CRIMINALLY wrong with the title and description (which there’s not) or something just doesn’t sit right with Google’s keyword tool…
That whole “According to Chikita Banana” thing – it’s more b*llsh*t. Every single keyword phrase matched against every single unique set of search results (personalized, mind you), countered by that specific entry in the SERP – it’s unique Title and Meta Description, are going to be so radically unique that it is humanly impossible to ever provide real or even ballpark numbers. Has nobody ever heard of the need to do A/B testing on page Titles or Meta Descriptions? So until I’ve got a result in place, over an extended period of time, any attempt to come up with a number might as well be immediately preceded by a sharing of the crack pipe, or immediately followed by a toke on a joint.
I find offering graphic illustrations of page one click distribution is valuable when discussing SEO benefits. The SEO book has some interesting information here: http://training.seobook.com/google-ranking-value with some images that can be quite helpful, as well as statistics… 56% of clicks go to # 1, 13% to # 2, and so on, with the total of clicks for page one rankings comprising almost 98% the total clicks, leaving only 2% for anything beyond page 1…. This is helpful, but still not going to give you a crystal ball! Congrats on closing that sale… each experience helps me learn more for the next! Chrissanne
Thanks for the heads up Alan :)
Have you considered asking the person with the #1 spot? We always focus so heavily on the computer, the algorithm, the links, but fundamentally websites are run by people. Of course many people may ignore you, but some of my best keyword research comes from simply asking other people how they are doing. More often than not, web masters are dieing to talk about Google.
I am desperately interested in SEO because the web sales that we get generate a far higher margin. It is a world of competing claims, statistics and bull as everyone has said above. BUT, I’m not an SEO professional, I’m an ordinary web user. Despite being UK based, I have used Google for 10 years after discovering it on a trip to LA. I almost never click directly on the top search but scan the first page for the most relevant item and, possibly, open two or three sites in different tabs. Someone should really take the trouble to put a bunch of people in a room and see who clicks on what for any given search, is it cultural, education based, experienced based? As someone who does most of his shopping on the internet, am I alone in scanning the front page? Is an experienced internet user more likely to buy rather than browse? This is the sort of material that would make a good dissertation for someone’s Masters degree. Could others leave feedback on how they browse on Google?
Some time ago I targeted the german word Heimtextilien (hometextiles) as a keyword for Germany. Google keywordtool told me that there were over 2 million searches a month on this keyword. I managed to get the No.1 spot, so this should draw a lot of people. Praxis is that I get only 300-400 visitors a month on that keyword. So a number one spot is nice, but does not guarantee anything. Therefore I agree with the statement above that there is something very wrong with the google keyword tool.
I was really reassured to read that you don’t do “guarantees” whereas swanky salesmen do! We recently got asked by a marketing agency without an online dept to join a pitch with them and be the SEO offering. I had to explain to them that I wasn’t willing to give fixed figures in response to the brief, and then stand infront of their client saying the same. I knew that what I was saying was correct – that there’s no way of knowing anything for sure – but I also knew that they wanted guarantees and I’ve no doubt other pitchers told them what they wanted to hear. Unlike you, we didn’t get the work! (but we don’t know if anyone did as they actually already had an agency in.)
A great post there Sean, I loved your initial response to the question. I recently had to “guestimate” the same kind of traffic figures. Even though I made it incredibly clear that these were only guesses based upon traffic estimations from Google, we were still asked to provide guarantees to the guesswork!! And no I wasn’t going to do this. My advice to anyone that has no choice in this kind of situation is to err heavily on the side of caution, otherwise you could be making a rod for your own back. Be honest and be transparent, I’m with Sean…you don’t always need to talk b*llocks to get on in seo or online marketing. Its refreshing to see others with the same opinion. Cheers
Well Shaun, unfortunately most of the clients even when applying for seo, wants to hear guarantees such as “You’ll get 2 bazillion hits in 2 months guaranteed!!!”. But on the other hand, i agree that many keyword tools don’t reflect the reality. Most of the times the visitors volume is much lower than i expect for any chosen keyword. But i’m glad you guys got the business anyway. :)
Why is it you always make such god common sense? Yet the vast majority of people cannot accept the basic premise of honesty and sincerity. Never fails to astound me how many of those shrewd business people still fall for those “swanky” salespeople with the promises for a great deal on the London Bridge.
Man, you hit a sore spot. As someone new to this biz it’s tough to nail down what the consensus really is on any given topic. However, I’m beginning to figure out which of the “experts” make the most sense. I would have to concur that our own results indicate a different story with regards to the usual percentages tossed around. sometimes the % varies significantly. sometimes the search traffic estimate was way off (in either direction). sometimes our clients get more traffic from a lower ranking (apparently). Clearly this issue reinforces the notion that SEO is as much art form (or soft skills) as it is science. And we’ve learned that if a client asks questions like, “How much traffic can you guarantee me?” or, “How many links will you build?”, they aren’t a good match. We’re looking for long term partnership that focuses on real success.
I think seo is a skill. I used to do art – it’s not the same. I got 98% in my Chemistry prelim (I wanted to be a chemical engineer until I discovered women and then the only science I was interested in was biology. :)
OK. Today I just did a quick survey of 10 contacts who are internet-aware and buy lots over the internet. None said they would press the top site that google suggests, all said that they scan the first page. The most frequent response was that people who did not normally buy over the internet were more likely to pick up the telephone once they had found what they want than to buy on-line. So, will someone out there respond to the question: “Does being Nº 1 on the Google search generate more sales or just more browsing?” Will one of you SEO professionals descend from you ivory tower and consider whether being number two or three is actually better? Edmund
Excellent question.
I’m usually happy with first page for as many terms as possible, than one number 1 I need to fight tooth and claw for. :)
I must be some kind of freak because keyword research is one of my favorite parts of SEO! Adwords campain is always the best way for me if you have the time. The difference you can gain in the early stages of work just by picking the right keywords is massive. Easliy the most important part of seo for me.
I do think it’s irresponsible for Google to provide such inaccurate numbers as they do sometimes though. They should at least put a warning on their label – “keyword numbers will be affected by locale, browser settings, etc.” If people shouldn’t be basing their business decisions (in part) off of it, then they should be able to (easily) learn that.
hi Shaun, Hmmm… I think this is one of the few times that I can say you are wrong… :) well, at least a little wrong, or not totally, completely right. I had to chuckle when you wrote that about all I can tell a person for sure is that you’ll get more links if you are number one than if you are number two. One thing that people sometimes miss is that this statement isn’t always true. You will only get more clicks at number one than number two if your title and snippet entice people to click your result! I regularly skip over the number one result if it doesn’t look interesting or relevant and the results below do. It isn’t only where you rank, it’s also how your title and snippet compare to the others on the page. :) Other than that, I agree with you completely. ~ Steve
Hi Shaun, I’m with you on being a linkbuilder Shaun. I’ve used a couple of those tools and the metrics are always different. I do keyword research, as a matter of fact, I did some today. I don’t bust my hump with it. I mentioned in another comment that my website was 6 months young. What I failed to say was that I have been using your guide for half that time. Your methods are working for me. Father and mother always said,”If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Thanks and God bless.
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